Poll averages since the 2022 Federal election

• Grey window in lower panel controls time slice; it can be dragged or widened to change the date range.

• Line is poll average; shaded region is a 95% credible interval.

• Roll over plot to reveal details of trajectory, individual polls and events.

• Orange horizontal reference line indicates 2022 election result.

import { aq, op } from '@uwdata/arquero'
d3 = require("d3@7")
parser = d3.timeParse("%Y-%m-%d");

outcomes = [
  {
    name: "ALP_2PP",
    label: "ALP 2PP",
    color: "red",
    y_lab: "↑ ALP 2PP"
  },
  {
    name: "ALP",
    label: "ALP primary",
    color: "red",
    y_lab: "↑ ALP"
  },
  {
    name: "Coalition",
    label: "Coalition primary",
    color: "blue",
    y_lab: "↑ Coalition"
  },
  {
    name: "GRN",
    label: "Greens primary",
    color: "green",
    y_lab: "↑ Greens"
  
  }
]

viewof theParty = Inputs.select(
  outcomes,
  {
    label: "Party: ",
    value: "ALP_2PP",
    format: x => x.label
  }
);

data = Object.assign(
  d3.csvParse(
    await FileAttachment("xi.csv").text(), d3.autoType)
      .filter(d => d.party == theParty.name)
      .map(({date, xi, lo, up}) => ({date, value: xi, lo, up })), 
  {y: theParty.y_lab}
)

/* xi  = transpose(xi_raw)

data = Object.assign(
  transpose(xi_raw).filter(d => d.party == theParty)
    .map(({date, xi, lo, up}) => ({date, value: xi, lo, up })),
  {y: "↑" + theParty }
  )
*/

//data

polls_overlay = d3.csvParse(
  await FileAttachment("polls_for_overlay.csv").text(), d3.autoType)
  .filter(d => d.party == theParty.name)
  .filter(d => !isNaN(d.y));

/* 
polls_overlay = transpose(polls_for_overlay_raw)
  .filter(d => d.party == theParty)
  .filter(d => !isNaN(d.y));
*/

//polls_overlay

events = d3.csvParse(
  await FileAttachment("events.csv").text(), d3.autoType);
  

//election_2022
election_2022 = transpose(election_2022_raw);

chart = {
  const svg = d3.create("svg")
      .attr("viewBox", [0, 0, width, height])
      .style("display", "block")
      .style("pointer-events","auto");

  const clipId = DOM.uid("clip");

  var plotting_region = svg.append("clipPath")
      .attr("id", clipId.id)
      .append("rect")
      .attr("x", margin.left)
      .attr("y", 0)
      .attr("height", height)
      .attr("width", width - margin.left - margin.right);

  const gx = svg.append("g");

  const gy = svg.append("g");
  
  const ci_path = svg.append("path")
      .datum(data)
      .attr("clip-path", clipId)
      .attr("fill","#CCCCCC7F");
  
  console.log(ci_path);
  
  const path = svg.append("path")
      .datum(data)
      .attr("clip-path", clipId)
      .attr("fill","transparent")
      .attr("stroke",theParty.color)
      .attr("stroke-width",4);

  const d_overlay = svg.append("g")
      .attr("clip-path", clipId)
      .selectAll("circle")
      .data(polls_overlay)
      .join("circle")
      .attr("cy", d => y(d.y))
      .attr("cx", d => x(d.date))
      .attr("r", d =>  z(d.Samplesize))
      .attr("r_orig", d => z(d.Samplesize))
      .attr("stroke", "#333")
      .attr("fill", "transparent")
      .attr("class","poll_circle")
      .attr("id", d => "poll_circle_" + d.poll_id);
  
  var crosshair = svg
    .append("g")
    .attr("clip-path", clipId)
    .attr("class","crosshair")
    .style("display","none");

  var crosshair_horizontal = crosshair.append("line")
    .attr("class","crosshair_line")
    .attr("x1", margin.left)
    .attr("x2", width - margin.right)
    .attr("y1", 0)
    .attr("y2", 0);

  // Append vertical line
  var crosshair_vertical = crosshair.append("line")
    .attr("class", "crosshair_line")
    .attr("x1", 0)
    .attr("x2", 0)
    .attr("y1", 0)
    .attr("y2", height - margin.bottom);

  // Append a circle at the intersection
  var crosshair_circle = crosshair.append("circle")
    .attr("class", "crosshair_circle")
    .attr("r", 5); 

  // add info top right
  var info_text = svg.append("text")
    .attr("class", "info_text")
    .attr("x",width - margin.right)
    .attr("y",margin.top)
    .attr("text-anchor","end")
    .text("Roll over plot to reveal polls and trend");

  // horizontal reference
  var y2022 = election_2022.filter(d => d.party == theParty.name).map(d => d.result)[0];
  
  var result_2022 = svg.append("line")
    .attr("x1",margin.left)
    .attr("x2",width - margin.right)
    .attr("y1",y(y2022))
    .attr("y2",y(y2022))
    .attr("stroke","orange")
    .attr("stroke-width",2);

  var result_2022_text = svg.append("text")
    .attr("class", "info_text")
    .attr("x",margin.left+4)
    .attr("y",y(y2022))
    .attr("dy",-6)
    .attr("text-anchor","start")
    .text("2022 election result");

  var events_line = svg.append("g")
      .attr("clip-path", clipId)
      .selectAll("line")
      .data(events)
      .join("line")
      .attr("y1", height - margin.bottom)
      .attr("y2", height - margin.bottom - 12)
      .attr("x1", d => x(d.date))
      .attr("x2", d => x(d.date))
      .attr("stroke", "#ddd")
      .attr("stroke-width",1)
      .attr("id", d => "event_line_id_" + d.event_id);
  var events_text = svg.append("g")
      .attr("class", "info_text")
      .attr("clip-path", clipId)
      .selectAll("text")
      .data(events)
      .join("text")
      .attr("y", height - margin.bottom)
      .attr("x", d => x(d.date))
      .attr("dx",-2)
      .attr("dy",-2)
      .attr("text-anchor","end")
      .text(d => d.event)
      .style("display","none")
      .attr("id", d => "event_text_id_" + d.event_id);
    
  // poll id text
  var poll_text = svg.append("text")
    .attr("class","info_text")
    .attr("x",width - margin.right)
    .attr("y",theParty.name == "Coalition" ? height - margin.bottom - 72 : margin.top + 22)
    .attr("text-anchor","end");
  
  
  return Object.assign(svg.node(), {
    update(focusX, focusY) {
      gx.call(xAxis, focusX, height);
      gy.call(yAxis, focusY, data.y);

      events_line.attr("x1", d => focusX(d.date)).attr("x2", d => focusX(d.date));
      
      ci_path.attr("d", area(focusX, focusY));
      path.attr("d", line(focusX, focusY));

      d_overlay
          .attr("cx", d => focusX(d.date))
          .attr("cy", d => focusY(d.y));
                             
      result_2022.attr("y1",focusY(y2022)).attr("y2",focusY(y2022));
      result_2022_text.attr("y",focusY(y2022));

      var selectedCircle_id = null;
      var currentCircle_id = null;

      var selectedEvent_id = null;
      var currentEvent_id = null;
      
      // Delaunay/Voronoi for mouseover etc
      const delaunay = d3.Delaunay
       .from(
         polls_overlay, 
         d => focusX(d.date), 
         d => focusY(d.y)
       );
    const radius = 25;
      
     
  // ineractions (many)
     svg
        .on("mousemove",
            function(event,d){
              let [mx, my] = d3.pointer(event);
              //console.log(mouseX);
              var nearestDataPoint = bisect(data,focusX.invert(mx));
              var nearestEvent = bisect(events,focusX.invert(mx));
              //console.log(nearestEvent);
              //console.log(nearestDataPoint);
              //console.log(nearestDataPoint.date);
              //console.log(nearestDataPoint.value);

              var xloc = focusX(nearestDataPoint.date);
              var yloc = focusY(nearestDataPoint.value);
              
              // Update line/circle position
              crosshair_horizontal
                .attr("x2",xloc)
                .attr("y1",yloc)
                .attr("y2",yloc);
              crosshair_vertical
                .attr("y1",yloc)
                .attr("x1",xloc)
                .attr("x2",xloc);
              crosshair_circle
                .attr("cx", xloc)
                .attr("cy", yloc);

              // Update text
              info_text
                .text(
                [   "Poll average: " + d3.utcFormat("%b %e %Y")(nearestDataPoint.date),
                    theParty.label,
                    d3.format(".1%")(nearestDataPoint.value),
                    "±" + d3.format(".1f")(100*(nearestDataPoint.up - nearestDataPoint.lo)/2)
                ].join(" ")
                );

              // update circles
              var allCircles = d3.selectAll(".poll_circle");
              const p = delaunay.find(mx, my);
              const d_test = polls_overlay[p];
              const dist = Math.hypot(
                mx - focusX(d_test.date),
                my - focusY(d_test.y)
              );
  
              if(dist < radius){
                currentCircle_id = d_test.poll_id;
                if(currentCircle_id != selectedCircle_id){
                  allCircles
                    .interrupt()
                    .attr("fill","transparent")
                    .attr("r", function(){return this.getAttribute("r_orig");});
                    
                  // all polls from this pollster get some highlighting
                  allCircles
                    .filter(d => d.Brand === d_test.Brand)
                    .attr("fill","#FFA500A0");  
                    
                  var thisCircle = d3.select("#" + "poll_circle_" + currentCircle_id);
                  var circleHighlight = thisCircle
                    .transition()
                    .duration(150) // Adjust the duration as needed
                    .attr("r",20)
                    //.on("end",function(){
                    //  thisCircle
                    //    .transition()
                    //    .duration(250)
                        //.attr("r", function(){return this.getAttribute("r_orig");})
                        .on("end",function(){
                          thisCircle
                          .transition()
                          .duration(0)
                          .attr("fill","#FFA500A0")
                      //});
                    });
                  
                  // update poll text
                  poll_text
                    .attr("display",null)
                    .datum(
                    [
                      "Highlighted poll:",
                      d_test.Brand,
                      d_test.Date,
                      theParty.label + ": " + d3.format(".1%")(d_test.y),
                      "Sample size: " + d3.format(",")(d_test.Samplesize)
                    ].join("\n"))
                    .call(multilineText);

                  // update selected circle
                  selectedCircle_id = currentCircle_id;
                }
                
            } else {
              d3.selectAll(".poll_circle")
                .interrupt()
                .attr("fill","transparent")
                .attr("r", function(){return this.getAttribute("r_orig");});
              poll_text.attr("display","none");
              }

            // update event
            const event_dist = Math.abs(mx - focusX(nearestEvent.date));
            if(event_dist < 20){
              currentEvent_id = nearestEvent.event_id;
              if(currentEvent_id != selectedEvent_id){
                events_line
                  .attr("stroke-width",1)
                  .attr("stroke","#ddd")
                  .attr("y2",height - margin.bottom - 12);
                events_text.style("display","none");
                var thisEvent_line = d3.select("#" + "event_line_id_" + currentEvent_id);
                console.log(thisEvent_line);
                thisEvent_line
                  .attr("y2",margin.top)
                  .attr("stroke-width",2)
                  .attr("stroke","orange");
                var thisEvent_text = d3.select("#" + "event_text_id_" + currentEvent_id);
                thisEvent_text
                    .attr("x",d => focusX(d.date))
                    .attr("dx", d => focusX(d.date) > (width/2) ? -4 : 4)
                    .attr("text-anchor", d => focusX(d.date) > (width/2) ? "end" : "start")
                    .style("display",null);
                selectedEvent_id = currentEvent_id;
              }
            } else {
              events_line
                .attr("stroke-width",1)
                .attr("stroke","#ddd")
                .attr("y2",height - margin.bottom - 12);
              events_text.style("display","none");  
              }
              selectedEvent_id = null;
            }
           );
                
      svg.on("mouseover", function(){
        crosshair.style("display", null);
      });
      
      svg.on("mouseout",  function(){
        crosshair.style("display", "none"); 
      });
      
    }
    
  });
  
}

viewof focus = {
  const svg = d3.create("svg")
      .attr("viewBox", [0, 0, width, focusHeight])
      .style("display", "block");

  const brush = d3.brushX()
      .extent([[margin.left, 0.5], [width - margin.right, focusHeight - margin.bottom + 0.5]])
      .on("brush", brushed)
      .on("end", brushended);

  //const defaultSelection = [x(d3.utcYear.offset(x.domain()[1], -1)), x.range()[1]];
  // close to the election focus in on 2025 to election day
  const defaultSelection = [ x(d3.utcYear()), x.range()[1]];
  console.log(defaultSelection);
  
  svg.append("g")
      .call(xAxis, x, focusHeight);

  svg.append("path")
      .datum(data)
      .attr("fill", "#ccc")
      .attr("d", area(x, y.copy().range([focusHeight - margin.bottom, 4])));
  
  svg.append("path")
      .datum(data)
      .attr("fill", "transparent")
     .attr("stroke",theParty.color)
      .attr("d", line(x, y.copy().range([focusHeight - margin.bottom, 4])));

  const gb = svg.append("g")
      .call(brush)
      .call(brush.move, defaultSelection);

  function brushed({selection}) {
    if (selection) {
      svg.property("value", selection.map(x.invert, x).map(d3.utcDay.round));
      svg.dispatch("input");
    }
  }

  function brushended({selection}) {
    if (!selection) {
      gb.call(brush.move, defaultSelection);
    }
  }

  return svg.node();
}

line = (x, y) => d3.line()
  .defined(d => !isNaN(d.value))
  .x(d => x(d.date))
  .y(d => y(d.value));
  
area = (x,y) => d3.area()
    .defined(d => !isNaN(d.value))
    .x(d => x(d.date))
    .y0(d => y(d.lo))
    .y1(d => y(d.up));
    
update = {
  const [minX, maxX] = focus;
  const maxY = d3.max([
    d3.max(data,          d => minX <= d.date && d.date <= maxX ? d.up : NaN),
    d3.max(polls_overlay, d => minX <= d.date && d.date <= maxX ? d.y + .0025 : NaN)
    ]);
  const minY = d3.min([
    d3.min(data,          d => minX <= d.date && d.date <= maxX ? d.lo : NaN),
    d3.min(polls_overlay, d => minX <= d.date && d.date <= maxX ? d.y - .01 : NaN)
    ]);
  chart.update(x.copy().domain(focus), y.copy().domain([minY, maxY]));
}

function multilineText(
  el,
  {
    fontFamily,
    fontSize = 11.5,
    lineHeight = 1.45,
    textAnchor = "end",
    dominantBaseline = "auto"
  } = {}
) {
  el.each(function (text) {
    const lines = text.split("\n");
    const textContentHeight = (lines.length - 1) * lineHeight * fontSize;

    const el = d3.select(this);
    const anchor = {
      x: +el.attr("x"),
      y: +el.attr("y")
    };

    const dy =
      dominantBaseline === "middle"
        ? -textContentHeight / 2
        : dominantBaseline === "hanging"
        ? -textContentHeight
        : 0;

    el
      .attr("font-family", fontFamily)
      .attr("font-size", fontSize)
      .attr("dominant-baseline", dominantBaseline)
      .attr("text-anchor", textAnchor)
      .selectAll("tspan")
      .data(lines)
      .join("tspan")
      .text((d) => d)
      .attr("x", anchor.x)
      .attr("y", (d, i) => anchor.y + i * lineHeight * fontSize + dy);
  });
}

x = d3.scaleUtc()
    .domain(d3.extent(data, d => d.date))
    .range([margin.left, width - margin.right])
    
y = d3.scaleLinear()
    .domain([
        d3.min([
          d3.min(polls_overlay, d => d.y) - .0025,
          d3.min(data, d => d.lo)
        ]),
        d3.max([
          d3.max(polls_overlay, d => d.y) + .0025,
          d3.max(data, d => d.up)
        ])
        ])
    .range([height - margin.bottom, margin.top]);

z = d3.scaleLinear()
    .domain(d3.extent(polls_overlay, d => d.Samplesize)).nice()
    .range([3,10]);
    
xAxis = (g, x, height) => g
    .attr("transform", `translate(0,${height - margin.bottom})`)
    .call(d3.axisBottom(x).ticks(width / 80).tickSizeOuter(0));
    
yAxis = (g, y, title) => g
    .attr("transform", `translate(${margin.left},0)`)
    .call(d3.axisLeft(y).tickFormat(d3.format(".0%")))
    .call(
      g => g.selectAll(".tick text")
            .attr("font-size","11px")
            )   
    .call(g => g.select(".domain").remove())
    .call(g => g.selectAll(".title").data([title]).join("text")
        .attr("class", "title")
        .attr("x", -margin.left)
        .attr("y", 10)
        .attr("fill", "currentColor")
        .attr("text-anchor", "start")
        .attr("font-size", "12px")
        .attr("font-weight", "bold")
        .text(title));
   
bisect = {
  const bisectDate = d3.bisector(d => d.date).center;
  return (data, date) => data[bisectDate(data, date)];
}

margin = ({top: 20, right: 20, bottom: 30, left: 40})

height = 440;

focusHeight = 100;

Differences across pollsters

The poll averaging model contains pollster-specific effects (“house effects” or biases) that (a) are constant over time; (b) “cancel out” (or sum to zero) across the included pollsters.

delta = transpose(delta_raw)
delta_data = delta.filter(d => d.party == theParty.name)

Plot.plot({
  title: theParty.label,
  label: null,
  width: 700,
  marginLeft: 80,
  marginRight: 80,
  x: {
    axis: "top",
    label: null,
    labelAnchor: "center",
    tickFormat: "+",
    percent: true
  },
  color: {
    scheme: "RdBu",
    type: "ordinal"
  },
  marks: [
  
    Plot.barX(
      delta_data, 
      {
        x: (d) => d.delta,
        y: "label",
        fill: (d) => d.delta > 0,
        sort: { y: "x" }
      }
      ),
      
    Plot.gridX({ stroke: "white", strokeOpacity: 0.5 }),
    
    d3
      .groups(delta_data, (d) => d.delta > 0)
      .map(([growth, pollsters]) => [
        Plot.axisY({
          x: 0,
          ticks: pollsters.map((d) => d.label),
          tickSize: 0,
          anchor: growth ? "left" : "right"
        }),
        Plot.textX(pollsters, {
          x: "delta",
          y: "label",
          //text: ((f) => (d) => f(d.delta))(d3.format("+.1%")),
          text: (d) => d3.format("+.1%")(d.delta) + " ±" + d3.format(".1f")(d.moe*100),  
          textAnchor: growth ? "start" : "end",
          dx: growth ? 4 : -4,
        })
      ]),
    
    Plot.ruleX([0])
    
  ]
})